Re: Season 29 Discussion

by robelix Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:26 pm

Bren wrote:
Better to spend 30 stars on a bunch of potential locks/props rather than 150 on one guy and have him turn out 196/105. (of course I get the great hope is to get a 209/130 player with amazing starting skills and making a killing on the TM)

agreed, i wouldnt put 150 stars on one hope, but i would go much higher than 30 stars on a potential lock. if i had 200 stars, i would easily go 80-100 stars on my 2 tallest prospects

by robelix Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:29 pm

this was my last efforts with trying to get a good lock...

4. Damian Hawk
17 y/o (R1, D3) | 199cm | 116kg | New Zealand | 120 stars

7. Otoo Mahe
17 y/o (R1, D7) | 200cm | 130kg | New Zealand | 100 stars

5. Wayne Downey
17 y/o (R2, D5) | 204cm | 111kg | New Zealand | 60 stars

by Bren Thu Nov 03, 2016 6:20 pm

robelix wrote:
Bren wrote:I feel like you've got the logic a little backwards really.

Stars have no effect on height or weight or discipline. Only skills. (starting) Skills are less important to props/locks compared to other players since untrainables are so important.

yep, get that. but the way i understand it, if you promote a 200cm + player, you are more likely (though not guaranteed) to get another player who is also 200cm + (hopefully even taller). If so, with more stars invested, the bethe starting skills for that player will be.

Going by transfer market values (not that i would be inclined to sell, just want to avoid having to buy a lock) buying a 17 year old 205 cm player with 50k csr could cost you a mil on the TM, whereas a 50k csr back may cost you half or less than half that price...same with heavy props.....a 130kg 17 year old with 50 k csr skills could fetch a heavy penny....

Yeah, nothing wrong with what you've said there. I just think I'm approaching it from a slightly different direction. We have this resource, stars, how do we use that resource to the best advantage for the u20 squad? Stars put on a forward are much less likely to be utilised by the u20 squad than a back, since most are disqualified by their untrainables. Therefore if you want forwards you should spread the stars while I think you can afford to put more stars on less backs.

Random thoughts, don't mind me too much.

by tryasta Thu Nov 03, 2016 6:40 pm

100% agree with Bren here.

Stars = ===> CSR
CSR is linear with the 4th power of the skills so to get a better starting skillset you need to pay a lot more stars.

For the tight five , a higher starting CSR is irrelevant if weight or height are not good, so why would you spend 200 stars on a hooker that might end up with 105kg?

by Brentton Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:44 pm

What your missing is that managers aren't out to help produce great youths and help the U20 squad (for the most part anyway) they are out to sell a lock or prop for millions and help their own club.

by chewy Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:54 pm

This seems a bit one sided for a CC Twisted Evil

by Bren Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:14 pm

Looks like teams were ranked by CSR and then matched up. Your low CSR means that you got matched up with the 9th best Aussie team. This fixture is more of an outlier.

Though it does look like we have a bit of advantage, the stars for my away game look quite favourable.

by Bren Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:20 pm

Brentton wrote:What your missing is that managers aren't out to help produce great youths and help the U20 squad (for the most part anyway) they are out to sell a lock or prop for millions and help their own club.

You're not wrong but my message isn't really targeted for managers like that. Everyone is free to focus on what they find the most fun, I don't have any problem with robelix putting big stars into locks. I encourage any efforts to scout potential U20s.

by tryasta Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:39 pm

chewy wrote:This seems a bit one sided for a CC

Sorry, Chewy. I did my best to get an even CC. Overall, we had a pretty even CC against SA but it seems we are too strong fro Aussie? I have tried so hard to get the last 4 Aussie teams that had not accepted their fixtures against us and against SA to accept them, and finally managed to get 3 of these. However, Gunslingers are left without fixtures :S

But anyway, the aussies have put a set of teams a tad weaker than SA did, and we have a 5 points start because of Gunslingers not playing.

I am yet to check the home fixtures, but I expect a good score in our favor.

by ivelostmysparky Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:46 pm

Would it be better to create CC fixtures based on country rank rather than top XV CSR?

by tryasta Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:59 pm

Perhaps. For this CC it was agreed with SA and AU to do it by CSR.

In my opinion country rankings would help some teams like Melville, whose CSR is not the best measure of its actual strength.

But one way or another, teams like Sparker, Jolly Roger Crew or Hercufleas are likely to run wild.

by chewy Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:59 pm

All good tryasta, you done heaps of work to get this going.

by Bren Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:07 pm

There's no perfect way to rate teams to be honest. Do it by rank, do it by CSR. There's always going to be anomalies. Thank you tryasta for your work on this!

by ivelostmysparky Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:56 pm

Yeah no worries. Just trying to propose a ?better? CC system so managers get closer and more exciting games. You are doing great work tryasta.

by tryasta Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:05 pm

I certainly thought it was a good idea to try this new CC system...

"A mini-3N, is it feasible? Why not?"

I would have been a lot happier had Australia been up to the challenge. SA responded really well, but I think Australia are suffering from lack of managers as much as any other community.

So I would consider it a moderate success.

by Bren Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:19 pm

ivelostmysparky wrote:Yeah no worries. Just trying to propose a ?better? CC system so managers get closer and more exciting games. You are doing great work tryasta.

I think a hybrid system can work well with both CSR and ranking points -- get the best out of both worlds. Though you're probably getting too complicated for a CC.

by tryasta Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:50 pm

But to do that you do need to have a correlation between ranking points and CSR and be able to build a ponderation system to take into account both and....

...and quite frankly I only know one person in the World doing that Smile

BTW: I am really keen for you to spam a mail to remind all NZ managers that the time to spend stars is S30 week2 day 1 and day 2. Will you do it?

by tryasta Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:45 am

We have won the Bledisloe Cup CC

NZ 108 - AU 42

All details are here

by donkeysaint Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:28 am

tryasta wrote:We have won the Bledisloe Cup CC

NZ 108 - AU 42

All details are here

Thank you for a very well organised pair of CC's!

by Bren Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:27 am

tryasta wrote:BTW: I am really keen for you to spam a mail to remind all NZ managers that the time to spend stars is S30 week2 day 1 and day 2. Will you do it?

Yep, any thoughts what the best day to do it is. Don't want to do it too early -- people may forget about it. Don't want to do it too late or people might start spending stars in Round 1. Also if anyone has thoughts on wording (want a good unambiguous message, that possibly also directs people to the offsite to ask questions) -- I'll post something up a bit later.

by Bren Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:10 am

Possible email to send.

Hi <Manager>, this is just a quick email to let you know that it's nearly U20 scouting time. We recommend holding off doing any scouting during Round 1 and instead do it on Round 2, Day 1, and then again on Round 2, Day 2. If you've got any questions then feel free to ask them on the NZ Offsite Forum. Thanks!

Also was thinking might be worthwhile to post a FAQ on the offsite for youth scouting so managers can have a read on why we recommend waiting until Round 2, Day 1 etc...

by tryasta Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:30 am

I quite like the email. I think Saturday or Sunday is probably a good time to send it, before tbey start the new week and mess up with stars and get players with birthdays in week 16.

by Elsteveo Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:52 am

Bren wrote:
Brentton wrote:What your missing is that managers aren't out to help produce great youths and help the U20 squad (for the most part anyway) they are out to sell a lock or prop for millions and help their own club.

You're not wrong but my message isn't really targeted for managers like that. Everyone is free to focus on what they find the most fun, I don't have any problem with robelix putting big stars into locks. I encourage any efforts to scout potential U20s.

Yes my focus is producing a decent under 20 player.

In saying that I am going to throw 50 stars at my tallest current youth and hope for Bren's Unicorn 209cm 130kg player to develop.
The other hundred will be 2 X 40 star backs and maybe then another throw at a lock in round 5 with 40 stars if my initial 50 is a bust.

by Kruizey Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:46 pm

Kruizey wrote:Good Luck on staying up Bren! I'm just happy that Linkin Hawk has passed through my league and I don't have to battle giants any more.

14th consecutive season in Div III.8. Anyone else have such a mediocre record?

I did it boys. 15th time is the charm. Back to Div II. I reckon they should name Div III.8 after my team though after all those seasons.

by tryasta Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:31 pm

Well done, Kruizey. What a day at the office for your lock pair. 16 lineouts won, 1 stolen, 0 conceded.

by Sponsored content